- S&P futures down 0.2%, just off worst levels. European markets mostly lower following mixed Asian trade. Treasuries rallying again after a pause yesterday. Curve flattening with 3M/10Y spread moving farther into negative territory. Dollar down on the major crosses. Gold up 0.2%. Oil lower ahead of official US inventory data; WTI down 0.6% Natural Gas down 1%.
- The focus will be on China industrial profits for Feb (Tues night/Wed morning), the ECB conf. (speakers include Draghi, Praet, Mersch, and others), the US trade balance for Jan (8:30amET), the US current account balance for Q4 (10amET), Fed speakers (George), BA’s 737 MAX update event (scheduled for Wed), analyst meetings (CATM, Electrolux, SPWR, and SRE), earnings (HOME, LEN, PAYX, SCWX, TITN, and UNF before the open and FIVE, FUL, LULU, PVH, SNX, and VRNT after the close), and conferences (Howard Weil Energy).
- Continued attention to the yield curve, particularly following remarks in the WSJ from Fed’s Kaplan, who said it is too soon to contemplate a rate cut. Some focus on tomorrow’s restart to US/China trade negotiations, with Trump saying he won’t settle for less than an “excellent deal.”
- In Europe, Draghi pledged to remain alert to future risks and readiness to respond, if necessary. UK PM May could also announce date of departure to win support for her deal. RBNZ made surprise dovish shift in March policy statement. Chinese equities were higher ahead of this week’s high-level trade talks in Beijing.
- WCG to be acquired by CNC in a deal valued at $17.3B. LUV lowered Q1 ASM growth guidance. KBH earnings beat, but LEN missed amid weaker deliveries. OLLI comps disappointed. BA said trouble with Orlando 737 Max flight not related to recent crashes.
- In the press:
- WSJ’s Heard on the Street column says Bed Bath & Beyond is beyond repair
- Dallas Fed’s Kaplan suggests it is too soon for Fed to cut rates – WSJ
- China Q1 Beige Book says Q1 recovery unmistakable – Bloomberg
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