Stefano Bottaioli

By Stefano Bottaioli

Luglio 08, 2016

Jobs Report odierno: cosa attendersi? – Ore 7

2….giornata improntata all’attesa (come sempre ormai) dei dati occupazionali Usa delle 14,30

Cosa aspettarsi e quali reazioni al dato?

What to expect from the market reaction? Here is a handy breakdown from one of the few voices on Wall Street we respect, BofA’s Michael Harnett:

  • Payroll risk is strong payroll (>225k) which causes relative outperformance of banks at the expense of bonds & quality stocks; strong US labor market & consumer data (note that US mortgage refi activity has been slowly creeping higher) that raises Fed hike expectations from the dead would lead to a short-term unwind of some very extended pair-trades across the world.
  • In contrast, a weak payroll (<125k) removes “terra firma” of US expansion, would in absolute terms be best for gold & volatility, and would ultimately cause further barbell outperformance.

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But perhaps the best indicator of what may be really coming tomorrow is the following chart showing the complete collapse in online help wanted ads: as shown below, the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online (HWOL) report showed another sharp drop in job posting in June, with the index now down 16% from its highs late last year.

Stefano Bottaioli

Consulente Finanziario &
Financial Blogger

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