All eyes will be on Jam Master Jay Powell today when the Fed makes the big announcement that will either save the market or kill it.  It’s Tricky by Run D.M.C is the theme song today as bulls are hopeful for a positive reaction to whatever is announced and bears just don’t believe anything can help this market.  I see both sides but I’m leaning bullish which is consensus and that makes it tricky for me.  Sentiment is extremely low with S&P at 8%, Crude sentiment is at 6% and has a downside DeMark Countdown on day 12 of 13.  Energy remains my favorite long sector for Q1 2019.  Sell side desks have said the selling pressure hasn’t been massive but rather a buyers strike and hedge fund performance hasn’t been great simply because they haven’t been short but only reduced gross exposure (sold longs).  That’s a little tricky too.  Is there a capitulation hours from now or will funds step back in and start a Santa Claus rally?  I honestly don’t know but the weight of the technical evidence leans overly bearish and I believe people have a pent up demand still for stocks. The fundamental back drop is weakening with weaker than expected FDX and MU reports.  I went into FDX with a small long after being only successfully short in the past quarters.  I thought it was washed out and the bad was priced in.  I’m exiting the stock and will lick my wounds.

I’ll send a quick note after the Fed with thoughts and perhaps some Trade Idea changes.  Again, it’s tricky with this announcement so stay nimble and flexible with decent percentage of cash.