….una sintesi della giornata e dei prossimi appuntamenti piu’ importanti
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- S&P futures up 0.2% after US equities put in a mixed performance on Tuesday. Asian equities mostly higher overnight. Hong Kong and China among the big gainers. European equities narrowly mixed. Treasuries mostly stronger with some curve flattening following recent rate backup that saw 10-year yields approach May’s year-to-date high. Dollar index higher overall. Gold down 0.2%. WTI crude off 0.3%.
- Not much to talk about with the waiting game for the Fed. Widely expected to raise rates by 25 bp, maintain upbeat economic assessment and reiterate near-target inflation and roughly balanced risks to the outlook. Bigger debate revolves around whether it will make any changes to longstanding description of policy as “accommodative.”
- MSCI proposed lifting the inclusion factor for China A-shares in its indexes from 5% to 20%. FTSE Russell inclusion also widely expected this week. Nothing really new on trade. Press reports discussed how US-Canada deal on NAFTA unlikely by next soft deadline. WSJ said Trump may be inclined to let Rosenstein stay on as deputy attorney general. NY Times discussed deteriorating US fiscal situation. Washington Post highlighted legal/regulatory scrutiny on tech.
- Not much corporate news. Nike beat and Street takeaways largely positive, though GM missed, revenue guidance down on FX and stock was up against elevated expectations.KB Home a standout following its results with the focus on much better gross margins and signs of stability in orders.
- The next big macro catalysts include the FOMC decision (Wed 9/26 2 and 2:30pmET; the consensus anticipates FF/IOER +25bp, “accommodative” omission, and static dots – 4 ’18, 3 ’19, and 1 ’20), Trump’s press conf. (Wed 9/26 5pmET – he is expected to address UN events and other news), Italy’s budget details (could be out Thurs 9/27; media reports suggest the deficit will be 2% of GDP or less), Trump’s meeting w/Rosenstein at the White House (scheduled for Thurs 9/27), testimony from Kavanaugh’s accuser in front of the Senate (Thurs 9/27), the US Aug PCE (on Fri 9/28), and China NBS PMIs for Sept (Sun morning 9/30). US-China trade is a wildcard – there aren’t any major events on the near-term calendar although Trump could authorize Lighthizer to begin consideration of tariffs on the remaining ~$250B in Chinese imports as soon as this Fri 9/28.
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